French Government Warns opponents on EU Treaty Delay

The upcoming French election poses a threat for Sarkozy's proposal to write a requirement to balance the state budget with a "golden-rule" ideal into France's constitution. A large majority agrees that the change in the constitution should be delayed due to the impending election. The call for national unity is the opposing party's reasoning for continuing with the changes. EU leaders have agreed that it is important to enact the new treaty, however there is much backlash that will occur if the changes proceed before the election. Without the support of the Socialist party there is a lack of a two-thirds party agreement. They have agreed that Sarkozy's plan is weak and should be postponed in hopes to not use it at all.

Elisabeth Guigou, the ex-European Minister, has openly voiced that she sees this push for legislation change as a "grotesque political trap". Although others agree with her opinion, the need for change should happen before the election if citizens truly wish to see this passed. After the election it is not certain that it will be seen through. Their push for this can be seen as a political move, but can also be viewed as an act to provide security within the economy.

The election is in May, thus, if the French citizens want this to pass, they need to move quickly.

http://news.yahoo.com/french-government-warns-opponents-eu-treaty-delay-231957535.html;_ylt=AgPGXnb8m_GC4cJ52eugoLqs0NUE;_ylu=X3oDMTNta29oZTk0BG1pdANUb3BTdG9yeSBGUARwa2cDOGI3MTEzYjYtZjE3MS0zM2ZiLWJhNmUtMDM4YzdkOGRiNjJiBHBvcwMxMgRzZWMDdG9wX3N0b3J5BHZlcgNkMjczNWI5MC0yNDRlLTExZTEtOWY3Ni1iOGEyZGI1NWRkMDA-;_ylg=X3oDMTFvdnRqYzJoBGludGwDdXMEbGFuZwNlbi11cwRwc3RhaWQDBHBzdGNhdANob21lBHB0A3NlY3Rpb25zBHRlc3QD;_ylv=3

Early last Friday, Israeli aircraft attracted the Gaza Strip in order to pre-emptive stop attacks as well as respond to a single RPG that harmed no one.  This over aggressive tendency of Israel is, to me, an extremely self-destructive tendency for Israel.  Their minister of defense says these kind of responses are necessary in order to keep up the understanding that Israel will not accept any kind of violence.  For years Israel has believed that by responding to any violence with swift much more powerful violence, they will manage to keep aggression from surrounding nations down.  

But in the end all they build is resentment.  I realize that Israel has dealt with an immense amount of aggression towards it, much of which has been unprovoked.  For this reason they inevitably are quick to respond with such violence, but even though they have managed to keep the aggression from there neighbors at bay they can not keep this up forever.  Eventually the resentment for Israel’s violence, especially in the many cases that have affected innocent citizens, will grow out side the region.  Even in the UN we are beginning to see a growth of countries supporting Palestine for state hood.

Israel has to come to a new relationship with its neighbors.  As we are seeing with Iran, the surrounding nations are growing in military capabilities.  Iran has described vividly how many missiles it would be prepared to attack Israel with and in a few years it is possible that they may even have necular weapons.  The world around them is changing in lieu of the Arab Spring, and its time they find a way to get on the right side of this new wave.  My point is that with a few concessions of sincere commitment to the Palestinian people’s grievances, then they may manage to show the changing Arab people that they really want a peaceful and economically successful middle-east as well.

Here is the article that inspired this blog: http://www.npr.org/2011/12/08/143402473/gaza-official-dozens-wounded-in-israeli-airstrikes

Vladimir Vs. Clinton

Vladimir Putin, the Russian Prime Minister, has spoken out and criticized the United States Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, for supporting the the protesters in Russia that have spoken out against his continuous reign over the Russian government. Hillary Clinton believes that the Russian people “deserve a full investigation of electoral fraud and manipulation” over the parliamentary votes that were casted on Sunday.
There have been accusations made by some that there have been ballot box stuffing’s and fraudulent manipulations over the vote count in the parliamentary elections. With the outcomes of the Russian elections, and the fact that Vladimir Putin’s approval rate amongst the Russian people has decreased, there have been a significant amount of riots and protest across Russia.
It seems that the Russian government has taken these riots and protest very seriously and have put out 50,000 police and 2,000 paramilitary troops on the streets, which have all been backed by water cannons. Vladimir Putin has warned that more extreme measures will be taken if these riots and protests continue.
I believe that even though there have been significant protest made against these recent elections, websites such as Facebook.com and Live Journal should not be take a credible sources to aid protestors in making city-wide protests.
http://www.taiwannews.com.tw/etn/news_content.php?id=1782357

The Question of the UK in the EU

There are many pros in cons to the UK staying in the EU. The bad part about Great Britain staying in the EU is that the EU is in a state of economic crises and the UK is suffering economically as a result of all of the bailouts. But if the UK left the EU than it would have no say EU economic policy and the EU could basically do whatever it wanted in relation to Great Britain because the UK would have no say in the European Union. Also, because of the fact that about fifty percent UK trade occurs with other European Union countries, tariffs would probably rise and the result would be that domestic industries would suffer. On the other hand, if the UK left the EU, the British parliament would again have complete control of its country and its policies. In conclusion, unless Great Britain leaves the European Union than it will never truly be a sovereign nation with complete autonomy over its own affairs.

The Beginning of 'Inner' and 'Outer' Europe

A summit began today in Brussels, as an attempt to find a solution to the crisis currently facing the Eurozone and the European Union at large. At the forefront of this agenda is the Franco-German proposal for Eurozone reform, which previously failed to gather the necessary support to be placed in effect for the EU bloc. The new proposal, which would apply solely to Eurozone countries, would force automatic penalties on Euro members that overspend, place pressure on Eurozone nations to pass amendments requiring balanced budgets, and create common corporate and financial tax laws.

The reason this proposal and who it applies to is so interesting is that this might well be the deal to save the Euro and the overall Union; after all, it is backed by both France and Germany, with France being long-time political leader and Germany emerging as the primary economic powerhouse of the EU - making it very difficult for those nations going under (hi, Greece) or rapidly approaching the cliff (Spain and Italy) to refuse the offer itself.

So are we seeing the beginning of a new era for European integration? Quite possibly. This proposal, if accepted, would further integrate the community of Eurozone countries within the context of the larger European Union. In this new era, we truly would be seeing Europe in, as Sarkozy recently said, 'two gears' - the Eurozone and tighter, supranational regulations being the first, and the more politically sovereign nations of the EU. These next few years will be interesting for the Euro and the Union - and may be remembered as the time leaders either proved or discredited the idea of European unity.

(As a final, interesting aside, France and Germany have supported their 'steamrolling' of smaller EU/Eurozone states by arguing that, as larger and more fiscally sound nations, they hold a greater deal of the risk. In addition, Sarkozy made mention at the preliminary meetings of the history between the two countries - both France and Germany, once holding centuries of bloody conflict between them, had not only worked together for the past fifty years, but were now actively fighting for the idea that brought them together: European unity.)

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-16100258

The Vatican and Global Oversight

I do not think that this global oversight institution will work. First it was proposed by the Roman Catholic Church (The Vatican) which is in itself suspicious to me. The Vatican is already in all likelihood the most powerful institution the world has ever seen. And now it wants to head an institution that could carry more weight than any individual country in relation to economic affairs. Second the fact that some institution could have more power over a country’s economy than the country itself seems absurd. Lastly, the idea of this institution seems to only reinforce the idea of globalization which, in the years to come, could strip away a country’s autonomy.

The U.S. as the World Police

I believe that the U.S. has a duty to play the role of being the “world police” only to a certain extent. On the one hand, the U.S. has a duty to protect humanitarian interests abroad as it is the most powerful military power in the world. On the other hand, by interfering in these foreign nations it only increase the hate that these nations have for the West especially in countries like Nigeria where the West had taking advantage of the country for hundreds of years. I think that it is a necessary evil to do this. We must protect humanitarian rights, we cannot sit back and watch people die and so if the people in these foreign countries hate us for trying to protect them then so be it. We cannot just do nothing about the situation.

Egypt elections

With the elections in Egypt, a parliamentary government will soon take the place of the military government that took temporary control after Mumbarak agreed to step down. With 70% of the Egyptian population taking part in the elections, democracy is well on its way in Egypt. The fact that the elections were somewhat disorganized is no surprise considering the fact that it was their first actual election. Reports of violence in some polling stations should have also been expected considering the tensions that many Egyptians have felt as of recently in relation to their resistance of military rule. The Freedom and Justice Party (The Muslim Brotherhood) stands a good chance of gaining much control in the government. This is the first step in a brighter future for Egypt and its people.

Protests in Iran

I think Great Britain definitely had the right to cut financial ties with Iran. Britain did this because Iran was not meeting certain requirements related to termination of its nuclear program. In doing so Britain hoped that Iran would end its nuclear program. But, too much dismay, Iran did not respond as it was thought that they would. Instead, mobs of mainly young Iranian students attacked the British embassy. Iranian security forces were supposed to be in charge of the protection of the embassy and they supposedly tried to but the thousand man mob was too much for them to handle and they stormed the embassy. The Prime Minister of Great Britain, David Cameron, denounced the attack and described it as "outrageous and indefensible" and he demanded the Iranian security forces immediately ensure the protection of its personnel. The week before the attack occurred, the U.N. reported that Iran’s nuclear program could be militarily motivated therefore Britain had a definite right to cease economic ties with Iranian banks as a threat to stop Iran from pursuing its nuclear program.
http://www.cnn.com/2011/11/29/world/meast/iran-demonstrations/index.html?hpt=hp_t2

Crescent Moon, Waning West

The Middle East has been in a state of revolution since January 2011. It all began with one fed up fruit vendor, Mohammed Bouazizi. He had his scale confiscated by a government official and when they would not give it back he did the unthinkable. He filled a canister with gas and in front of a government building in a small town in Tunisia, in the middle of traffic; he poured the canister over himself and lit a match. He barely survived. Videos of the incident would not have been shown on Tunisian television, and if it wasn’t for the fact that 20% of Tunisians had Facebook a revolution might have not occurred but they did. Videos of the man lighting himself on fire went up all over Facebook and when the man died word went out on the Internet and the public responded. Thousands poured into the capital and the dictator, Ben Ali, in fear for his life fled the country. Tunisia was free. But this was only the start. Egypt would soon follow in the steps of Tunisia and soon President Mumbarak resigned. Word was now spreading across the middle east of the revolutions. A Middle East country had never had a leader ousted by its own people and now it was starting. Libya would soon follow in the surge of uprisings and with the help of NATO, over the course of many months, Libyan rebels soon started to win the fight. When Muammar Gaddafi was finally captured and beaten to death it seemed as if the Libyan people had won there revolution. Throughout the Middle East, demonstrations have been taking place, from Yemen to Iran and Saudi Arabia. Additionally Saudi Arabia’s ancient crown prince Sultan has died. His death came at a time when many Saudi Arabians were seeking and demanding that their country modernize faster. What does all of this mean for the west? The U.S. has had relationships with many Middle East leaders and dictators. The U.S. has benefited from these alliances because it would deal with just the leaders alone, not some massive government body. The dictators or leaders had total control. But that could all change very soon. Elections have already been held in Egypt, which has been temporarily controlled by the military following Mubarak’s resignation. Elections will also soon be held in Tunisia and Libya as well. It seems as if these countries, among others, are heading to a democratic rule. One major fear is that fundamentalist Islamic groups might take control of these governments and once they are in control they might not want to leave. These new democratic governments might also not want any part of westernization especially if they are Islamic. Though western influence might waning but Middle Easterners will always have western influence in the fact that its students and businessmen will always flock to the United States for opportunity and knowledge.

http://www.economist.com/node/21534782
http://www.cbsnews.com/2100-18560_162-20033404.html?pageNum=2&tag=contentMain;contentBody

Futile and Stupid Gestures

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20111208-716501.html

For those who have been following it, the sovereign debt crisis in Europe has been quite the comedy. Allow me to explain: nearly every important government decision by European officials in the last couple of months remind me of a quote from Animal House “I think that this situation absolutely requires a really futile and stupid gesture be done on somebody’s part!”

After the dean tells the Delta House fraternity that he’s expelling them all, “Otter” delivers that statement to inspire his brethren. “Blutto” (played by John Belushi) responds “…and we’re just the guys to do it.” They then devise a plan that brings mayhem to the entire town.

This is exactly what we keep getting from leaders in Europe. Futile and stupid gestures in response to events related to the debt crisis. The cycle is very simple. First, something really awful happens, like Greece defaulting, or a Bank needing a bailout. Then the markets panic. Standard and Poor’s will downgrade a country or two.

Then the politicians (who have somehow avoided getting thrown out of office) come out of the wood-work with their futile and stupid gestures. It doesn’t matter how it takes form. They start by making promises that they’re going to make everything all better. They’ll take talk about ‘debt plans’ and ‘bazookas’ and ‘firewalls’ and ‘debt brakes’ and all sorts of political mumbo-jumbo, ultimately buying themselves a little more time. Somehow, it works, and they buy themselves some time.

Soon some grand summit or meeting will be planned in the near future (this week it’s in Brussels.) They’ll assure us, ‘just wait till the summit, then the leaders will figure everything out’. Of course nothing ever gets solved.

One thing that has changed, though, is how much time they expect us to wait for the debt solution Christmas. It started as a week, maybe a month. Now, they expect us to wait several months until Angela Merkel and Nicholas Sarcozy (Bluto and Otter in my analogy) can come up with the comprehensive plan that will rescue us.

This is of course very convenient for leaders like Sarcozy have elections coming up in the next couple of months. So whatever is decided in this next plan, we’re gonna have to wait until at least the summer. If it doesn’t work (and it never does), the cycle repeats and they dream up another plan.

The only problem is, markets aren’t going to wait. The futile and stupid gestures will end. Governments in Europe are either going to default on their debt, or they’re not. If they do, the longer the politicians bullshit us, the more painful it’s going to be for everyone.

Putin out of touch with the people?

     December 8, 2011 Vladimir Putin was carousing around the art galleries while protesters were screaming "Russia without Putin!" Apparently he wanted to send a message that  it's business as usual for Russia's paramount leader. He can ride out protests in Moscow and St Petersburg and has nothing to fear from a planned day of protests nationwide on Saturday. But the big question here is whether or not Putin has lost touch with the Russian people? Could it be a fatal political error? 

    But when the name Vladimir Putin arises in the political world many perceive him to be the never ending ruler of Russia. That no matter what happens he will maintain his power. But he needs to come to terms with the Conventional wisdom that he can ride out these protests and return to the presidency in an election in March, but his authority will keep falling if he fails to respond to the growing signs of discontent. Recent protests throughout Russia have delegitimized his power. A source even went as far as saying "We are witnessing the decline of Putin's epoch." If so what would be Russia's next political move?

     The opposing side believes Putin's strengths are his political experience after 12 years in power, his tight grip on traditional media, and the state apparatus he has at his disposal, including the armed forces, police and the ability to open the state's purse to appease some of the protesters. The head of the Levada Centre polling organization believes that "it won't be long before the protests fade. Anger over the election may keep them going for a while but there's no idea of what to do next. The leaders are competing with each other." The protests have served notice that opposition is growing and discontent is mounting over corruption, a tightly controlled political system dominated by one man and the huge gulf between rich and poor. These are the areas where protesters want change. But the youth in Russia are a strong supporter of Putin and they see him as a symbol of success, a macho and natural leader.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/12/08/us-russia-protests-putin-idUSTRE7B71HY20111208