For as long as I have been alive, the Unites States and Iran have been at odds with each other. Now, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton seems to think that Iran is turning from a clerical regime to a military dictatorship. Many people already seem to be at the conclusion that Iran is already a military dictatorship. Most people know that Iran has a head religious figure called the Ayatollah, but most people do not realize that Iran also has a president.
I believe that most countries that have clerical regimes will eventually become a military dictatorship. The religious figure will eventually become enamored with the power, and the religious power may try to depose of the president or prime minister. The religious figure will almost definitely try to make himself more powerful than the president or prime minister. It seems as if Ayatollah Khamenei is already doing this. He is already more powerful than the president since he can appoint people to influential posts in the military and government. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Quds Force (IRGC-QF) seems to be the tool that the Ayatollah is using to control the people of Iran which makes Iran seem to be even more of a military dictatorship.
What makes the situation in Iran even harder to deal with is the fact that we really do not know who the decision maker is now. What we do know is that the Ayatollah is more powerful than the president, and that many Iranian clergy feel as if he is lacking in some religious education. In other words, some Iranian clergy feels like he is not up to the job. He was also just a midlevel cleric when he became the Ayatollah which to me makes him a prime candidate to turn his country into a military dictatorship. He probably feels like the only way to maintain power over his population is to back the army and make them more powerful. Roman history has shown us that armies can put leaders in power and take them out of power just as easily.
Since the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Quds Force (IRGC-QF) is so powerful in Iran, I would say that they are trending to more of a military dictatorship than a clerical regime. Although it is still important for the Ayatollah to have some religious support behind him, he does not need as much religious backing with the military behind him. I think that only the future will really be able to show what will happen in Iran.
Article: http://security.blogs.cnn.com/2011/11/07/irans-growing-military-dictatorship/?hpt=wo_bn1
That’s something that seems to worry a lot of Iran-watcher - the rise of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard was the wildcard rising in the years after the overthrowing of the Shah, and seems to be rapidly consolidating power. There’s some evidence that the Revolutionary Guard may just simply overtake the government in a slow coup. For myself personally, I’m not interested in the when - because, to be honest, it feels like only a matter of time - but rather the how and the results. With Israel’s recent belligerent posturing towards Iran, a strike could easily allow the Guard to take over; given the Guard’s ultraconservative and military leanings, I have a feeling a strike would just prompt them to override any civilian leadership at all - clerical or secular.
ReplyDeleteIran, a sore spot of all Western relationships. In September, Iran was under fire for jailing a Catholic who refused to renounce his faith and convert to Islam. I believe that most religious leaders do become overwhelmed with power and eventually take over the country’s government. In Iran, a non-secular country, the Ayatollah has currently power over the most influential positions in the Iranian government. Even if the current Ayatollah does not abolish the government, officials will only be puppeteers. The Revolutionary Guard is something that I concern myself about. Since, they are essentially no different than the Gestapo of the Nazis or the secret police of fascist Italy and communist Russia, the guard can easily influence all political active Iranians to become silent.
ReplyDeleteIran, one thing after the other.