December 8, 2011 Vladimir Putin was carousing around the art galleries while protesters were screaming "Russia without Putin!" Apparently he wanted to send a message that it's business as usual for Russia's paramount leader. He can ride out protests in Moscow and St Petersburg and has nothing to fear from a planned day of protests nationwide on Saturday. But the big question here is whether or not Putin has lost touch with the Russian people? Could it be a fatal political error?
But when the name Vladimir Putin arises in the political world many perceive him to be the never ending ruler of Russia. That no matter what happens he will maintain his power. But he needs to come to terms with the Conventional wisdom that he can ride out these protests and return to the presidency in an election in March, but his authority will keep falling if he fails to respond to the growing signs of discontent. Recent protests throughout Russia have delegitimized his power. A source even went as far as saying "We are witnessing the decline of Putin's epoch." If so what would be Russia's next political move?
The opposing side believes Putin's strengths are his political experience after 12 years in power, his tight grip on traditional media, and the state apparatus he has at his disposal, including the armed forces, police and the ability to open the state's purse to appease some of the protesters. The head of the Levada Centre polling organization believes that "it won't be long before the protests fade. Anger over the election may keep them going for a while but there's no idea of what to do next. The leaders are competing with each other." The protests have served notice that opposition is growing and discontent is mounting over corruption, a tightly controlled political system dominated by one man and the huge gulf between rich and poor. These are the areas where protesters want change. But the youth in Russia are a strong supporter of Putin and they see him as a symbol of success, a macho and natural leader.
Putin is an important figure that people all over the world can relate to Russia. Regardless of what a person may know about Russia, they know that Putin is the leader of Russia. Even though Putin is so powerful, he still needs to address the concerns and discontent of the people. Putin needs to remain in touch with his people, and the easiest way to do so is by addressing the concerns. Regardless of the protests, I am not so sure that Putin’s power is declining. As long a large amount of youths support him, I feel like he can remain in power. Since they see him as being a symbol of success, a macho and natural leader, they will continue to support him. I feel like it is too early to be claiming that Putin’s power is declining.
ReplyDeleteI was actually pretty surprised by these protests. I aware of the undemocratic nature of Putin’s secure position of power, but I’ve always had the impression that his popularity among Russians made his position relatively unquestioned. However, even if a particular leader is extremely popular, it is important for a democratic system to function properly that leaders are not allowed to stay in power indefinitely. It wasn’t until after FDR’s presidency that the United States put a cap on presidential terms. Although he was elected to serve each of his terms legitimately, lawmakers saw the importance of setting limits. If a single person’s popularity allows them to stay in office for extended periods of time, at what point will the democratic process of elections become a simple formality?
ReplyDeleteThe elections results in Russia have been received. Putin had won over 99.98% of the votes (can I say hello to voting fraud?) Although Putin is again the face to associate with Russia, Putin’s political party narrowly won 50% of the votes from the Russian people. If Putin and his political party continue to be on the decline, as Matt said, a referendum could place a cap on the number of years that presidents and prime ministers get. Hopefully, if this does get passed, Putin can refocus his efforts in one of his many other skills and Russia can finally progress into a leader it once was. (although, preferably without the communism)
ReplyDeleteI believe that as long as Putin has some supporters, especially the youth who are often a significant driving force when it comes to elections, he will continue to keep his power over the Russian people. Even if some of his supporters fall out of favor with him, it would not be difficult for him to persuade others to back his views, especially since he has such a strong hold on the Russian media. Even though Putin is more than likely going to be able to hold onto his power, he should not ignore the protestors and keep believing that this uprising will easily go away.
ReplyDeleteIt's interesting to me that, at the time of his political ascendance, Putin was actually considered a 'savior' of the Russian people - his early policies promoted economic and social policies that contributed to the rise of a strong middle class in the crisis years post-Cold War. Given his contributions to this modernization, there WERE those who actually thought he could be the closest thing the world's seen to a benevolent dictator - a leader who asks only for power in exchange for looking out for his people. Funny now how now the protests are finally beginning.
ReplyDeleteI agree with Amy that Putin can not ignore the growing discontent with him. Leader can not be flawless and have support of the entire country, so some discontent should be expected; but addressing the concerns within the country is a part of democracy. Ignoring or trying to suppress opposition is a slippery slope. I have to say I also was surprised to hear about the protests against Putin’s reelection. Russian’s have expressed so much loyalty and respect for Putin, I guess it over powers some of the discontent. It will be interesting to see if these protest will survive the winter as the article suggested as questionable.
ReplyDeletePutin clearly still has complete control of his political fate in Russia. These recent protest in no way suggest that Putin is losing his grip in being the sole leader of Russian politics. The only chance that Putin will loose his foothold in Russian politics is if an overwhelming majority of the people start to be discontent with what he does. As Amy suggested, Putin has everything he needs to maintain power: experience in Russian politics, control over the media, a strong backing from military and police. The only chance for any kind of change in Russia will happen through Putin’s death or an epic revolution. I think that the latter is far more likely.
ReplyDeleteI think that leaders like Putin are a dying breed. Look at Libya, Tunisia, Egypt, and all the other countries in the Middle East that are experiencing protests. People are tired of illegitimate government. Many of these countries are not even experiencing a great deal of turmoil. They simply are tired of business as usual. This is the case even here in the United States. Occupy Wall Street, in my opinion, is clearly confused over who is to blame, but I think they are right about one thing: things are clearly not the way they should be.
ReplyDeleteI once read an article years ago about how the internet would eventually change the world. The author explained that for people like us, here in a developed country, access to the internet is not a big deal. The information it makes available has always been largely available to us, just not as conveniently. However, in emerging economies we’re seeing the development of conscientious middle classes. People in countries that have always been poor and oppressed are becoming enlightened, and it’s very clear what is enlightening them: the internet.
Russia is a different situation, but protests in the Middle East are likely what has inspired them to protest.
Putin refuses to face the fact that his constituents no longer think of him as a ‘savior’ nor will they make music videos dedicated to his greatness. His recent political actions have caused his followers to question his reign as a ‘benevolent dictator’. Without the respect of the citizens of Russia, Putin’s power will decline until his reign is ended. Ignoring the protesters could potentially be the end of his political career. Putin got caught rigging the Parliamentary elections and the public is angry; it’s serious when large number of protests all around Russia go into the streets in the middle of winter months. To endure such harsh and cold weather is determination.
ReplyDeleteI believe Putin is doing the best he can. If he's ignoring protests, it's because he's doing his job and conducting "business as usual" because he has to look strong for the Russian people. I'm not defending him, but I think this is what a lot of politicians would do. I think he definitely needs to reconnect with his people and try to woo them again. He must explain his policies and recent political actions. Of course a lot of people are angry with him because of his questionable and corrupt behavior. He can't just turn a blind eye to a group of angry people, because it's possible that Russia is on the brink of a large scale protest or even an uprising. This is interesting because inactivity is activity and he's sending the wrong message to his people by acting like he doesn't care.
ReplyDeletePutin, in my opinion, is by far the most entertaining European leader that we've discussed this year. Surely most would frown upon my first thoughts about Putin and his incredibly powerful position as Russia's self-anointed savior carrying little more significance than a circus sideshow, but thats what he most closely resembles at this point in his career. `
ReplyDeleteYes he essentially "forced" himself into office (again and again) and into the Russians' hearts and succeeded. Now I find it pretty amusing to watch this guy try to pull every last trick out of his hat just to satisfy his insecure ego and attempt to assure himself that he's not the joke that we always took him for, but rather the joke that his OWN PEOPLE take him for now.
Truly fascinating as always, Mr. Putin